I told you a few posts ago that you can't bluff a fish because they are not listening to the "story" that you are trying to tell them through your bluff. However, there is a flip side to this... don't try to bluff a good player with an inconsistent story. Let me give you an example from one of the sit and go's I played last night.
It is the very first hand of a $10, 9 person sit and go. I have not played with anyone at this table, so no read history to go on. However, I am looking at their profiles on sharkscope.com and the majority of the players have negative stats (that's a good thing!). I am dealt 88 in middle position and open-raise 4x the blind. The player to my left calls, as does the button. The blinds fold, three players remain.
The flop is Ks 7s 2h. Typically against a single opponent on a semi-coordinate board I would put in a pot-sized continuation bet here. However, against two or more players, I play more cautiously. I check, as did the other two players.
The turn is a [Ks 7s 2h] 4h. With no action on the flop, and two flush draws on the board, I decide to take a shot at the pot. I bet the size of the pot. The player to my left thinks about it for a moment and then calls. The button folds.
At this point I am a little confused. How could the 4h have helped my opponent's hand? I can only think of two scenarios. First, he is slow-playing a pair of kings or maybe a set. However, with two flush draws out there, he should be trying to move me off the hand. The other possibility is that he is on a flush draw. If that is the case, he really didn't have the correct odds to call my turn bet. Again, with no read on this player, I have no way to know whether he is a tricky player, or just a bad player drawing incorrectly.
The river comes [Ks 7s 2h 4h] 4d, pairing the board. Well, there is good news and there is bad news. Which do you want first? The good news is that if my opponent was on a flush draw, he just missed his draw. The bad news is that I still don't have a clue what he has! The 4 on the river wouldn't have helped him, unless he called preflop with something stupid like A4. So I consider the river a blank and decide to bet like I did on the turn.
I bet out about half the pot. My opponent immediately pushes all-in. Oh, great. The first hand of the tournament and I am forced to make a decision for all my chips against a player for which I have no experience reading. In a situation like this I try to run through the possible hands that are beating me and see if the betting patterns from my opponent throughout the hand fits with those possible holdings. One note... since I do not have any history with this opponent I tend to assume he is playing straight forward instead of playing tricky.
The board: Ks 7s 2h 4h 4d
Hands beating me:
KK--Very unlikely. I would have expected my opponent to have reraised preflop with this holding.
Kx--More likely with the preflop call than KK. However, I find this unlikely because of the flop check. With a 2-card flush on board and two opponents, it would not be in his favor to give a free card. He might have been planning to check raise his top pair and his plan was foiled by the button's check. However, he was given an opportunity to raise on the turn, now with two flush draws, and he didn't take it--he just smooth called. I certainly wouldn't do that with just a pair of kings against that board. So, I do not think he has kings at this point.
77--Unlikely. Early in sit and go's while the blinds are still low, I see a lot of players call raises preflop with medium pairs. They hope to hit a set on the flop and potentially stack their opponents. He might have called my preflop bet with 77. Similar to the Kx example above, he might have checked the flop with the hopes of check-raising. However, when the second flush draw fell on the turn, he just called instead of raising. With a set against two flush draws, if I were playing his hand, I am getting my money in at this point. So a set of 7's doesn't seem to fit the betting pattern consistently.
22--Unlikely. Same reason as the 7's, but less likely that someone would call a 4x preflop raise with 22.
4x--Maybe he called preflop with A4s or something silly like that and now has trips. The flop check would make sense. The turn call would make sense if he had spades or hearts giving him a pair and a flush draw. However, if he did have a 4, why would he push the river? Why wouldn't he up my bet slightly to try to extract more chips from me? A 4x seems unlikely.
74, 72, and 42 all seem unlikely due to my preflop raise.
So at this point, the story that he is trying to tell is inconsistent with any of the hands that are beating me. Let's look at one of the options that I am beating: the busted flush draw...
Let's say he started the hand with Ax suited. I think this is the most likely because many players (incorrectly) call preflop raises with suited aces.
- He checked the flop which is consistent with missing the flop or taking a free card on a flush draw.
- He called my pot-sized turn bet. This is inconsistent with missing the flop but is consistent with a flush draw.
So we are down to a flush draw as the most probably holding. Now, the push on the river...
- If he has any of the hands that are beating me, I would expect him to try to get value for his better hand. A small raise would make sense, but the push is inconsistent with a made hand on the river.
- If he put me on a busted flush draw, again, a small raise would move me off the hand. So again, the push is inconsistent if he thinks I have a busted flush draw.
At this point the only holding that fits the pattern of my opponent is if he has a busted flush draw. The push on the river appears to be his attempt to get me to fold the better hand.
I called. He turned over A9s for a busted flush draw and I double up with my pair of 8's. A great read and a great result.
The point of this post is to highlight the importance of telling a consistent story when trying to pull off a bluff. If your opponent is actually trying to put you on a hand (like I was), in order for a bluff to work, each of your actions preflop, on the flop, turn, and river must add up to make the hand that you are representing possible. If your story isn't consistent, your opponent might just look you up (as I did). If you are planning to bluff a hand, forget about your actual cards and play the entire hand consistently as if you were holding the cards that you are trying to represent. That way you are telling a consistent story that is believable by your opponent.
Until next post, good luck at the tables!
