How To Overplay Pocket Aces

I couldn't believe this hand when the cards were turned up. I was playing in a PokerStars, $10 No-Limit Hold'em single table tournament with 10/20 blinds. None of the players were familiar to me. However, due to my initial profiling, I knew that all three players had losing records. In this example, all the stacks are still deep and our hero is dealt pocket Aces in position MP1. Here's a visual of the table setup:


Hero's M: 48.33 (Learn about M)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A♣, A♥

UTG calls t20, 1 fold, Hero bets t80, 2 folds, CO calls t80, 3 folds, UTG calls t60

I am OK with the raise here. I typically recommend a larger raise in this situation, especially at the lower stakes tables. At this stage in the tournament, t80 isn't much to push out other players, especially losing players that are playing too many hands. And Aces do not play well against multiple opponents. So you want to isolate against the UTG player if possible.

Flop: (t270) 9♠, 7♣, J♠ (3 players)

What to do? I will examine the rest of this hand as if we are the hero with the Aces. With pocket Aces, this flop would fit into the "interesting" category, a medium strength hand that is probably best right now but is at risk of being beaten. The flop is semi-coordinated. With an interesting hand on a semi-coordinated board, if first to act, I recommend a bet for value. You don't want to give your opponents a free opportunity to draw to a straight or flush.

How big is your opponent's drawing opportunity? I use a tool called Tournament Indicator when I play. If I load the Aces and the flop into Tournament Indicator, the tool immediately shows me my opponents draws (this happens automatically when you are playing).

If you examine the odds section, Tournament Indicator shows your opponents have a 33% chance of hitting a straight by the river (see area circled in red). However, if you look at the win odds (white circle), you only have a 22% chance of winning the hand. Your opponent has a better chance of winning by the river. So at this point our hero should play very cautiously, especially if a scare card comes on the river.

UTG checks, Hero bets t190, CO calls t190, UTG calls t190

Again, I like a bet here. If his opponents were playing a low pocket pair hoping to flop a set, he might push them off the hand. He might also push out AK or AQ, both reasonable holdings given the action so far.

Turn: (t840) K♥ (3 players)

OK, this is a disaster card for our Hero. If one of the opponents has a Queen or Ten, they are one card closer to the straight. If they have Queen/Ten, they hit their straight. In addition, the King also makes possible other reasonable preflop hands that beat the Aces. King/Jack beats my Aces. King/Nine beats me (although I wouldn't play these cards in this situation, but you could reasonably expect losing players to play these hands.

Here's another look at Tournament Indicator on the turn:

Notice the straight percentage has increased (red circle) to 37%. But also notice that the possibility of your opponent drawing to 2 pair has also increased to 25% (blue circle). Both possibilities are higher than your current win odds of 23%. With this information, what should you do with your pocket Aces? You should check them down to the river and fold to any significant action. But what does our Hero do?

UTG bets t1350 (All-In), Hero calls t1180 (All-In), CO calls t1250 (All-In)

Oops. I guess that explains why our Hero has a losing record! Let's see what happens.

River: (t4520) Q♠ (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: t4520

Results:

UTG had 9♦, K♦ (two pair, Kings and nines).

Hero had A♣, A♥ (one pair, Aces).

CO had 10♠, Q♥ (straight, King high).

Outcome: CO won t4520

Our Hero was knocked out of the tournament. Notice above that Hero had t1180 when calling the UTG shove. t1180 with blinds of 10/20 is a HUGE stack to work with. There isn't any valid reason to call in this spot. Instead, our Hero should have folded and waited for a better opportunity to get his money in.

I think this is a great example of a player overplaying pocket aces. I hope you were able to see the logic behind folding in this situation. Aces look great, but in reality, they are only a pair, easily beat on a board like this, as clearly shown by Tournament Indicator.

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(Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com).