It Depends!

I received an e-mail today from a reader of my blog asking for advice on a hand she played in a recent sit 'n go tournament. She said she raised with 99 and the board came K83 rainbow. She bet half the pot and was raised. She thought about it for a while and then decided to fold the hand. She asked if it was correct to fold in this situation. My response was initally simple:

It Depends!

Making decisions in poker is far more situational than the cards you hold and the cards on the board. I offer some general guidelines for post-flop play in my course, but in order to make solid decisions you must think further than this. Here is a list of questions that I sent her and a brief explaination why each question is important to making the correct decision.

What stage of the tournament are you in?
If you are in the early stages of a tournament, play will be different than if you are on the bubble or if you are already in the money. Players will typically see more flops in the early stages but might tighten up on the bubble. In addition, some players will make tighter pre-flop decisions at a full table than at a short table. Asking this question helps you begin to put your opponents on a hand.

What position were you in?
If you raise from early position, your opponents (at least the one's that are thinking beyond their own cards!) will put you on a better range of hands than if you were to raise on the button. Raising from early is announcing to the table that you have a real hand. Callers after are also announcing they have a real hand. However, if you raise on the button, many will interpret this as a steal and not give you credit for a hand. Knowing the position helps you think about how your opponents are likely to have translated your raise.

How many players were left to act?
Building on the concept above, if you raised an early position at a full table with 6 or 7 people left to act, that indicates you have a stronger hand than if you were to raise from the small blind with only 1 player left to act. In contrast, at a short table with only 4 players, raising from early position means less than the same raise at a full table.

What was your M pre-flop?
Again, this is about understanding how your opponents might think about your hand. If you raise pre-flop with an M that is large (say 20 more more), some will put you on a wider range than if you were to perform the same raise with an M of 5. With a low M, they should be asking the question, why didn't they push all in? Do they have a monster and are trying to get some action?

How have you been playing pre-flop?
Again, this is to help you understand how your opponents might view your raise. If you are raising every hand, they will put you on a wider range of starting hands than if you folded the last 20 hands. It is also good to know the amount you have been raising pre-flop. Has it been the same amount each time? Or do you raise more with big hands and less with weaker hands?

How have you been playing post-flop?
Do you typically put in a continuation bet when you are the pre-flop raiser? Or do you check and call to the river? A player that always puts in a c-bet will get less "respect" on the flop than a player who typically checks but this time bets. This again goes to how your opponents will interpret your bets.

How many people called your raise?
The writer didn't indicate how many people called, but I assume it was only one. However, this is important to know. If three people called, there is a higher probability that one of them has a K than if only one player called.

What was their M pre-flop?
Similar to the question above, if they called with a high M, they might be on a wider range than if they called with a low M. If their M was below 7 and they just called the raise, I would put them on a stronger hand than if they called with a high M (assuming I believe they know what they are doing).

What position where they in?
If you raised pre-flop from under the gun and you were called by the player immediately on your left, I would put that player on a stronger hand than if the call came from the big blind. Why? Because the player on your left still has other players left to act. So for them to call they are risking a reraise. But the call from the big blind closes out the action.

How has each of your opponents been playing pre-flop?
If the person that called your raise is playing every hand, I would put them on a wider range of cards than if it were a tight player that only plays big cards and maybe AK-AQ type hands. Are they the type of person that likes to see lots of flops? Do they usually reraise with premium hands, or just limp or call a raise. Knowing the betting patterns of your opponents is one of the most important aspects of making correct decisions.

How has each of your opponents been playing post-flop?
Does your opponent frequently reraise to a continuation bet? Or do they fold if they miss. If they hit a big hand do they slow play it or bet aggressively. As above, understanding the betting patterns of your opponents helps you to narrow down the range of hands they might be playing.

She responded to my questions but couldn't remember enough detail to answer all of them. She did provide the following:

• She was in middle position and had been playing about 50% of her hands.
• The caller was on the button and wasn't playing very many hands (tight).
• The blinds folded, so two players saw the flop.
• She was playing passively after the flop, only betting when she had a hand.
• The caller was also playing passively after the flop.

Well, this isn't a lot of information to go on. But we can draw some conclusions based on this. First, from the view of the button, since she was playing many hands, the button probably put her on a weaker starting hand. However, since she was typically passive after the flop but bet the flop this time, the button must have assumed she hit the flop. But the button still raised her post-flop bet.

Thinking about it from her view, she raised before the flop and was called by a tight player with two people still to act. If the tight player had a hand like AA or KK, he probably would have raised, trying to isolate. However, he just called. Therefore, I would put this player on a couple of high face cards or maybe a medium pocket pair. She bet after the flop, but the button raised. Assuming the button was paying attention, he knew she only bet after the flop when she hit. So for the button to raise in this situation, he is saying he also hit.

At this point I would ask two questions. First, what hands could my opponent hold that I am beating? Well, it is unlikely that the button would raise with two face cards that didn't contain a king, and it is unlikely the button would raise with a pair smaller than my pocket 9's. So I can't think of any hands he would raise with that I am currently beating.

Next question, what hands could he have that are beating me. Here you must think about the betting pattern of your opponent and see if the bets make sense based on your previous observations. Hands beating me:

• AA--unlikely. The button would have probably reraised pre-flop.
• KK--also unlikely. Probably would have reraised pre-flop, and the appearance of another K on the board makes the odds of KK lower.
• AK--yes my opponent would probably just call pre-flop. And with only top pair, my opponent could be betting for value with what he thinks is the best hand, or probably wants to end the hand quickly. So AK fits.
• KQ to KT--also possible. Might be reraising to buy information and try to determine if his kicker is good. KT is less likely because of the tight nature of the player.
• TT to QQ--less likely. Although the button might have just called with these hands, it is unlikely he would bet into me with the K on the board. Although some players do this to buy information, as discussed above.
• 88--unlikely. Depending on how tight the player was, they might have folded 88 to a preflop raise. However, most players would have just called the flop bet with 88 (flopped set) hoping you bet into them on the turn (and will raise at that point). Can't rule it out, but less likely.
• 33--unlikely for the same reasons as 88.

So, where do we stand? Based on the information above, I can't think of any hands we are beating that fit the profile and betting pattern of our opponent. However, AK or KQ fit. So if your opponent now has a pair of kings, you are drawing to 2 outs with only about a 8% chance of making it by the river. Based on this, I would let this hand go and wait for another opportunity.

I could write a separate post on each of the questions above. However, my goal here was to help you think a little further about the situation each time you are faced with a decision. This might seem like a lot to go through on each hand, but over time, it will become natural. I recommend you do this while not in a hand also. By doing so you are forced to pay attention to the betting patterns of your opponents. When they turn over their cards at showdown you can adjust your reads based on the new information. Then, when you are faced with a decision during a hand, you have a foundation of information to work with to help you make better decisions.

Sorry for the long post. But I hope it was helpful!