Switching To Push/Fold Mode

I played a few sit 'n go's the other night. It is nice to be playing again and I am very happy with the continued development of my game. However, there was one hand that I could not get out of my mind.

In my first sit 'n go I was put to a decision for all my chips on the bubble. I had just over 2000 in chips. The big stack (in SB) is to my left. I have been watching him very closely and have developed what I believe is a dependable read on one of his betting patterns. When he hits a big hand he checks or bets about half the pot. When he misses but thinks he can steal, he bets the pot or shoves. I've seen the pot bet 3 times over the last 15 hands and each time it was on a semi-bluff. His check/bet half has been consistent from the early stages. It is unusual to play against someone that is so consistent and predictable, but it is a welcome trait!

Here is the detail from the hand:

SB: 8,280
BB: 1,415
UTG: 1,715
Hero (BTN): 2,090

Pre-Flop: (300) Td Ah dealt to Hero (BTN)

UTG folds, Hero raises to 700, SB calls 600, BB folds

Flop: (1,600) Js Th 9c (2 Players)

SB bets 1,600.

OK, here is the pot-sized bet again. My first instinct was that he was semi-bluffing. The pattern fit perfectly with what I had observed throughout the tournament. If he had hit the flop he most likely would have checked or bet small. Do I call off all my chips here with 2nd pair or do I fold and wait for a better opportunity to get my money in? If I fold I will still have about 1400 in chips, plenty to continue the battle. Am I willing to put my whole tournament at risk based on a read? You betcha!

Hero calls 1,390 and is All-In

SB showed Ks 7h

I was correct on my read. I had the best hand. He was on a draw with 11 outs or about 42% to make his hand by the river. However, even through I made an excellent read, I still made a bad play. Not by calling his shove on the flop--that was an excellent call. But instead, my bad play occurred before the flop.

I didn't mention this at the start, but the blinds had just increased to 100/200; however, I did not notice the blind increase until I clicked the "bet pot" button when it was my turn to act. As soon as I saw the 700 bet I immediately knew I had made a mistake. I begged for the blinds to fold, but that would not be the case.

So why was the 700 bet a mistake? With my opening bet of 700, I had only left 1390 behind. As a general rule, if you are going to put a third of your chips into the pot preflop, you should just shove them all in because when you bet a third of your stack you are basically pot committing yourself. With my 700 bet, the 700 call from the SB and the 200 from the BB, the preflop pot was 1600. If I had bet half the pot on the flop (800) I would only have 600 left, not enough to move anyone off the hand on the turn. So I would have had to shove the flop anyway.

As a general rule, once you get down to
an MZone of about 7 (or about 10 big
blinds if there are no antes), push or fold.

Don't get cute with small raises or limps. As a reminder, if you shove before the flop you have two ways to win... 1) if your opponents fold, and 2) if your hand holds up at showdown. However, in my example above, even if my opponent had checked the flop he would have been getting near the proper odds to call a flop shove. By waiting until the flop to shove I gave up one of my ways to win and forced a showdown for all my chips on the bubble.

Don't make the same mistake.